For The Love Of God, Please Stay Home

The only thing in the news these days is Coronavirus. Coronavirus is going to kill millions. Coronavirus is going to decimate our society. Coronavirus is our black swan. We don’t really know what the symptoms are and we don’t really know how it spreads.

The only thing we do know is that the only way to stop it at this point is aggressive social distancing. Every expert I cited in every previous link says the same thing: the only way to stop what’s coming is to stay home. Stay home from work, stay home from school, stay home from playdates, clubs, and restaurants, stay home from coffee shops and your friend’s apartment. Wherever you’re thinking of going, don’t. Make a big grocery store trip, buy all the food you need for a while, and stay home.

So far only one measure has been effective against the coronavirus: extreme social distancing.
 — Cancel Everything, The Atlantic

At this point, containment through contact tracing and increased testing is only part of the necessary strategy. We must move to pandemic mitigation through widespread, uncomfortable, and comprehensive social distancing. That means not only shutting down schools, work (as much as possible), group gatherings, and public events, but also making daily choices to stay away from each other as much as possible.
 — Social Distancing: This is Not a Snow Day, Ariadne Labs

These measures require closing companies, shops, mass transit, schools, enforcing lockdowns… The worse your situation, the worse the social distancing. The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected.
 — Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, Tomas Pueyo

For those who are not familiar with epidemiology, here’s the gist: Without social distancing, everyone gets infected at once. The healthcare system will be overwhelmed. Many people will go without care, and as a result, tens of thousands of people will die. The mortality rate will be around 5%.

With social distancing, not everyone gets infected. Those who do, do not get infected at once. The healthcare system would not be overwhelmed. Far fewer people would die. The mortality rate would be around 0.5%. In the US alone, hundreds of thousands of lives would be saved thanks to just staying the fuck home.

And yet.

I’m 24. I live in a college town. My friends are still visiting each other in their apartments. They are still catching up at coffee shops and pizza places and taking day trips to discount bookstores. Groups of college students can be seen walking around campus, heading from one party to the next.

Every expert on the face of the planet has said the only thing we can do to stop this disease from ravaging the world is to stay home, and they aren’t.

Some people might not want to stay home because they think all this pandemonium about social distancing is an overreaction. That seems to be how some people are treating me; they think my self-quarantine is cute but ultimately overboard. Yeah, nobody likes the idea of getting sick, they tell me, but don’t I see that I don’t need to put my life on hold?

Then, when they invite me to spend time with them and I decline, they get angry. That prepper paranoia is cute when it doesn’t affect their life, but it’s not cute anymore. Now it’s a problem.

They see me as a paranoid prepper. I wish I was.

(IF I’M SYMPTOM FREE) CAN I HAVE A SMALL GROUP OF FRIENDS OVER TO MY HOUSE FOR A DINNER PARTY OR A BOARD-GAME NIGHT?

Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security: With few exceptions, now is the time to cancel get-togethers. Dating, family visits, house parties, should all be postponed or held virtually if possible. There are personal situations where you must go out for work, for supplies, or to help someone else in need. In those cases, take precautions to keep your distance from others, and wash your hands frequently. If you develop a fever or cough, don’t go out unless it is absolutely necessary or to seek medical care.
 
—The Do’s And Don’ts of Social Distancing, The Atlantic

Then there are people who think that while you should cancel your overseas travel plans and avoid trips out-of-state, staying home altogether is a little overboard. Instead of staying home as much as possible, they are merely staying home a little more often than usual.

For instance, some people prefer to make many short grocery trips instead of a few large ones. Continuing to make many short trips when experts are recommending you stock up and stay home is putting yourself and others at risk.

(IF I’M SYMPTOM FREE) SHOULD I BE WORRIED ABOUT GOING TO THE GROCERY STORE?

Carolyn Cannuscio, the director of research at the Center for Public Health Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania: I would say try to shop at times when there are very few other shoppers there. That [could mean] going first thing in the morning when the store opens, or late at night. I think many people will rely on delivery, and that’s just the nature of our lives right now. For delivery workers, I would say, leave the food on the doorstep and ring the bell, rather than interacting face-to-face with the person who’s ordered the food.

— The Do’s And Don’ts of Social Distancing, The Atlantic

Then there are the other “important” things, like gym visits and haircuts. It’s one thing to cancel an overseas trip, they say, and another to not even allow yourself to go to the gym. If you don’t go to the gym, you won’t be healthy, and then aren’t you more likely to get sick?

(IF I’M SYMPTOM FREE) CAN I GO TO THE GYM?

Watson: I would not advise people to go to the gym to work out now. I am trending more toward being conservative with social-distancing measures the more we see from Italy and with the changes in guidance from CDC and state and local health authorities. So, I would not advise people to go to the gym to work out now.

Cannuscio: No. In the coming days, as the crisis escalates, our freedom of movement may be restricted, so people will have to get creative about exercising at home. Can someone please host virtual dance parties? Create a playlist to get us through the pandemic? Our family has felt some relief after blasting music and dancing around the kitchen — not to deny the horror of what is happening now, but to deal with it. Our daughter actually thanked us when we threw a dance party. Highly recommend.

— The Do’s And Don’ts of Social Distancing, The Atlantic

Regardless of how you feel about skipping your gym visits and haircuts, the experts have weighed in: you should be staying home. From coffee shops, restaurants, gym visits, and haircuts. Unless you absolutely need to leave the house for work, food, or medical care, stay the fuck home.

Right now, state departments are closing a lot of things down. They’re imposing curfews, usually around 6 AM to 10 PM. They’re closing down the customer-service portions of restaurants, allowing only takeout and delivery to remain operational. Universities are sending students home. Broadway, Apple stores, and professional sports are all closing.

The thing is, though, they only have to take these measures because people won’t stay home. The more people don’t take reasonable precautions on their own, the more authority figures have to step in and take these precautions for people in order to save lives. No state department official relishes the idea of crippling the hospitality economy, but if citizens won’t behave responsibly on their own, they are forced to take these measures to do what they can to save lives. Their choices are to cripple the economy or watch people die. I don’t envy them that. They don’t have to face these choices, though. If you voluntarily choose to stay home, officials won’t feel the need to impose draconian laws. No curfew needs to be set for a population that will behave responsibly on their own.

I might convince a few people with this article, but ultimately, people are going to do what they want to do. People who are not taking this pandemic seriously are going to keep living their lives as they were, spreading COVID-19 in either a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic way. By the time they start experiencing symptoms, it will be too late; they will have already unwittingly played their part in making this pandemic worse.

Please don’t be one of those people. Don’t contribute to a higher mortality rate; don’t be the reason more people die. Just stay the fuck home.

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If you’ve decided to stay home, I’ve written about how to make the most of it: